Acknowledgments	5
	Contents	6
	Abbreviations	10
	Chapter 1 - The Problems We Face	13
	1.1 Introduction	13
	1.2 Assessment of Technology Is Often Over-optimistic	14
	1.3 An Earth Systems Science Approach Is Needed	16
	1.4 Uncertainty About the Future Is Increasing	17
	1.5 Equity Issues Are Central in a Finite World	19
	1.6 Energy Is Vital for Economies	20
	1.7 Time to Make the Needed Changes Is Limited	21
	1.8 Proposed Solutions Can Often Make Matters Worse	22
	1.9 A New Approach to Economics Is Needed	23
	References	24
	Chapter 2 - Global Climate Change	26
	2.1 Introduction	26
	2.2 The Science of Global Warming	27
	2.2.1 The Science Basics	27
	2.2.2 Mathematical Models and the Temperature Record	30
	2.2.3 Greenhouse Gases and Their Anthropogenic Sources	32
	2.2.4 Learning from the Past	35
	2.2.5 The Polar Regions Are Critical	37
	2.3 What Impacts Can We Expect?	38
	2.4 What Should We Do?	40
	2.4.1 Mitigation	40
	2.4.2 Adaptation	42
	2.5 Climate Change, the Public and Policy-making	43
	2.6 Closing Comments	45
	References	45
	Chapter 3 - Earth’s Resources Are Finite	48
	3.1 Introduction	48
	3.2 Earth’s Energy Flows	49
	3.3 Fossil Fuels Availability	51
	3.4 Mineral Resource Availability	55
	3.5 Humans in the Biosphere	59
	3.5.1 World Population Growth and Food and Water Availability	59
	3.5.2 Declining Ecosystem Service Provision	63
	3.5.3 Declining Species Diversity	65
	3.6 Living Sustainably in the Anthropocene Epoch	66
	References	66
	Chapter 4 - Uncertainty in Global Environmental and Resource Problems	70
	4.1 Introduction	70
	4.2 Uncertainty, Prediction and Climate	71
	4.2.1 Uncertainty and Prediction: General Considerations	72
	4.2.2 Uncertainty in Climate Prediction	73
	4.2.3 Effects of Climate Uncertainty	75
	4.3 Uncertainty in Resource Estimates and Availability	76
	4.4 Responses to Uncertainty	78
	4.4.1 The Future Is Determined: An IIASA Approach	78
	4.4.2 Expert Solicitation and Delphi Analysis	80
	4.4.3 Scenario Analysis	81
	4.4.4 The Precautionary Principle	82
	4.5 Responding to a New, More Uncertain, Future	83
	References	86
	Chapter 5 - Renewable Energy: Too Little, Too Late?	89
	5.1 Introduction	89
	5.2 Biomass Energy	90
	5.3 Hydropower	93
	5.4 Geothermal Energy	94
	5.5 Wind Energy	96
	5.6 Solar Energy	100
	5.7 Ocean Energy	103
	5.8 Comparison of RE Sources	105
	5.9 Renewable Energy in the Future	107
	References	108
	Chapter 6 - Nuclear Energy: The Ultimate Technological Fix?	112
	6.1 Introduction	112
	6.2 Nuclear Energy: History and Forecasts	113
	6.3 The Nuclear Fuel Cycle	115
	6.4 Reactor Design	118
	6.5 Difficulties with Existing Nuclear Power Programs	120
	6.5.1 Uranium Resources Are Limited	121
	6.5.2 Low Level Radiation	122
	6.5.3 Nuclear Accidents and Reactor Safety	123
	6.5.4 Natural Hazards	124
	6.5.5 Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Sabotage	125
	6.6 Nuclear Power: New Technology for the Long-term?	126
	6.6.1 Breeder Reactors	126
	6.6.2 Fusion Reactors	128
	6.7 An Uncertain Nuclear Future	130
	References	131
	Chapter 7 - Engineering for Greater Energy Efficiency	134
	7.1 Introduction	134
	7.2 Defining Efficiency and Its Limits	135
	7.3 Transport	137
	7.4 Buildings and Their Equipment	142
	7.5 Energy Conversion	145
	7.6 Obstacles to Energy Savings from Energy Efficiency	146
	7.7 Energy Efficiency in a Wider Context	149
	References	150
	Chapter 8 - Getting Rid of Atmospheric Carbon: Sequestration and Air Capture	153
	8.1 Introduction	153
	8.2 Carbon Sequestration in Soils and Forests	154
	8.3 Carbon Sequestration by Ocean Fertilisation	156
	8.4 Carbon Capture from Large Power Plants	157
	8.5 Air Capture	160
	8.6 Geological Carbon Sequestration	162
	8.7 Carbon Sequestration in the Real World	164
	References	167
	Chapter 9 - Great and Desperate Measures: Geo-engineering	169
	9.1 Introduction	169
	9.2 Global Albedo Decreases	170
	9.2.1 Stratospheric Aerosol Placement	171
	9.2.2 Other Approaches	172
	9.3 Regional Albedo Decreases	173
	9.4 Unwanted Impacts of Geoengineering	176
	9.4.1 Unwanted Climate-related Impacts	176
	9.4.2 Ocean Acidification	178
	9.5 The Ethics and Politics of Geoengineering	179
	9.6 Geoengineering: Weighing the Costs and Benefits	182
	References	184
	Chapter 10 - The New Economy	186
	10.1 Introduction	186
	10.2 The Global Economy and Energy: Past and Present	189
	10.3 What’s Wrong with the Old Economy?	192
	10.4 The Human Needs Approach	194
	10.5 Human Settlements Case Study	196
	10.5.1 Is the World Future Urban?	196
	10.5.2 Transport in the Transition and Long-term	198
	10.5.3 Dwellings	204
	10.6 Toward a Carbon Neutral Civilisation	205
	References	208
	Chapter 11 - Conclusions	211
	11.1 Introduction	211
	11.2 A Brief Review of the Main Themes	211
	11.3 What if We Continue Our Present Path? (A Look at a World 4 ºC Hotter)	214
	11.4 A Just and Ecologically Sustainable Future	216
	References	219
	Index	220