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Content |
6 |
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Foreword |
9 |
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1 Introduction |
15 |
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I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool |
22 |
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2 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument |
22 |
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Introduction |
22 |
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Types of Scenarios |
24 |
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Narrative Scenarios |
26 |
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Idea Line vs. Plot Line |
28 |
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Decoding and Using Narrative Scenarios |
31 |
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Conclusion |
32 |
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References |
32 |
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3 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight |
35 |
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Introduction |
35 |
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The Process |
37 |
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Communication and Impact |
45 |
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References |
45 |
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4 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight |
47 |
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Introduction |
47 |
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Imagination in science fiction: “What if…” |
49 |
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Science fiction and foresight |
51 |
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Wild cards: Imagining surprising events |
55 |
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Conclusion |
64 |
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References |
65 |
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5 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue |
67 |
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Introduction |
67 |
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Threat scenarios |
68 |
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Urban Security 2025: The safe city or security as a social problem (short version) |
70 |
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Airport Security 2025: Adventure Airport or coping with uncertainty? |
73 |
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Scenarios as an instrument for dialogue |
75 |
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Risk perception and risk communication |
76 |
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The new culture of uncertainty |
77 |
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Politics as stakeholder |
78 |
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Conclusion: Security dialogues as a task of security research |
78 |
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References |
79 |
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6 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry |
81 |
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Introduction |
81 |
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Horror scenarios and their function as a policy instrument |
83 |
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The example of “dark” scenarios for EU transport industry 1960’s-1980’s |
85 |
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Dark scenarios about the “American threat” |
86 |
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Dark scenarios about the Japanese threat |
88 |
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Proposing new dark scenarios for today |
92 |
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Conclusion |
95 |
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References |
98 |
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II. Scenarios in Practice |
102 |
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7 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies |
102 |
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Introduction |
102 |
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Scenario Process |
104 |
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Five scenarios for privacy and emerging technologies |
109 |
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Future-oriented SWOT method |
112 |
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Limitations and improvements |
117 |
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Discussion |
122 |
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Conclusions |
124 |
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References |
124 |
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8 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector |
129 |
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Background of the project |
129 |
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The Salon method |
132 |
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Using scenarios in the Salon method |
134 |
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References |
136 |
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9 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project |
138 |
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References |
148 |
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10 “Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios |
149 |
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Brief Summaries of the ZIF Scenarios |
162 |
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References |
166 |
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11 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project |
168 |
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Introduction |
168 |
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The FESTOS Project |
169 |
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Technology Signals of Change |
170 |
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Categorizing signals of change |
173 |
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From signals to scenarios |
179 |
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Conclusion |
180 |
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References |
181 |
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12 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios |
182 |
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Introduction |
182 |
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Basic challenges |
183 |
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The Scenarios |
185 |
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Methodological structure |
186 |
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Scenario workshop |
188 |
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Finalization |
191 |
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Indicators as a strategic instrument for security improvement |
191 |
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Conclusion |
194 |
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References |
195 |
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13 The FESTOS Scenarios |
198 |
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How to read the scenarios? |
198 |
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III. Synopsis |
230 |
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14 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios |
230 |
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Introduction |
230 |
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How to start? |
231 |
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Challenges |
232 |
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Strengths |
233 |
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New perspectives |
234 |
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Complex issues – displayed in an intuitive way |
236 |
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Obstacles |
237 |
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What is the best method? |
237 |
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Attitude matters |
240 |
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How can scenarios be used and utilized? |
241 |
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The scenarios in this book |
245 |
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References |
246 |
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15 Conclusion |
250 |
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About the Authors |
256 |
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