Content	6
	Foreword	9
	1 Introduction	15
	I. Scenarios – A Methodological Tool	22
	2 Narrative Scenarios as an Analytical Instrument	22
	Introduction	22
	Types of Scenarios	24
	Narrative Scenarios	26
	Idea Line vs. Plot Line	28
	Decoding and Using Narrative Scenarios	31
	Conclusion	32
	References	32
	3 Scenarios that tell a Story. Normative Narrative Scenarios – An Efficient Tool for Participative Innovation-Oriented Foresight	35
	Introduction	35
	The Process	37
	Communication and Impact	45
	References	45
	4 Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight	47
	Introduction	47
	Imagination in science fiction: “What if…”	49
	Science fiction and foresight	51
	Wild cards: Imagining surprising events	55
	Conclusion	64
	References	65
	5 Security 2025: Scenarios as an Instrument for Dialogue	67
	Introduction	67
	Threat scenarios	68
	Urban Security 2025: The safe city or security as a social problem (short version)	70
	Airport Security 2025: Adventure Airport or coping with uncertainty?	73
	Scenarios as an instrument for dialogue	75
	Risk perception and risk communication	76
	The new culture of uncertainty	77
	Politics as stakeholder	78
	Conclusion: Security dialogues as a task of security research	78
	References	79
	6 Didactical Functions of Dark and Bright Scenarios: Examples from the European Transport Industry	81
	Introduction	81
	Horror scenarios and their function as a policy instrument	83
	The example of “dark” scenarios for EU transport industry 1960’s-1980’s	85
	Dark scenarios about the “American threat”	86
	Dark scenarios about the Japanese threat	88
	Proposing new dark scenarios for today	92
	Conclusion	95
	References	98
	II. Scenarios in Practice	102
	7 The Use of SWOT Analysis for Future Scenarios: A Case Study of Privacy and Emerging Technologies	102
	Introduction	102
	Scenario Process	104
	Five scenarios for privacy and emerging technologies	109
	Future-oriented SWOT method	112
	Limitations and improvements	117
	Discussion	122
	Conclusions	124
	References	124
	8 The Future of Water Use: Scenarios for Water Management in Telangana - Strengthening Local Governance in the Minor Irrigation Sector	129
	Background of the project	129
	The Salon method	132
	Using scenarios in the Salon method	134
	References	136
	9 The Future of Water Use: Construction of Scenarios in the Project	138
	References	148
	10 “Peace Operations 2025”: From Shaping Factors to Scenarios	149
	Brief Summaries of the ZIF Scenarios	162
	References	166
	11 Anticipating New Security Threats: The FESTOS Project	168
	Introduction	168
	The FESTOS Project	169
	Technology Signals of Change	170
	Categorizing signals of change	173
	From signals to scenarios	179
	Conclusion	180
	References	181
	12 The Development of FESTOS Scenarios	182
	Introduction	182
	Basic challenges	183
	The Scenarios	185
	Methodological structure	186
	Scenario workshop	188
	Finalization	191
	Indicators as a strategic instrument for security improvement	191
	Conclusion	194
	References	195
	13 The FESTOS Scenarios	198
	How to read the scenarios?	198
	III. Synopsis	230
	14 Reflections on how to Improve Future Scenarios	230
	Introduction	230
	How to start?	231
	Challenges	232
	Strengths	233
	New perspectives	234
	Complex issues – displayed in an intuitive way	236
	Obstacles	237
	What is the best method?	237
	Attitude matters	240
	How can scenarios be used and utilized?	241
	The scenarios in this book	245
	References	246
	15 Conclusion	250
	About the Authors	256